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Exploring that Awkward Time of Life in between Grad School and Marriage.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

So Who Is It Exactly That Still Supports Bush?

These past two days I've been in the car even more than usual for work, and both days my radio dial found its way to the conservative talk station. Not that I'm a huge fan of conservative talk radio, but I was curious to hear the rightwing reaction to President Bush's immigration reform speech on Monday night. I personally thought it was OK....I don't think he really said anything that hadn't been said before or made any groundbreaking statements in general, but as far as "I'm aware there is a lot of concern on this issue, and I promise to work to fix it" speeches go, I thought it served its purpose.

Apparently hard-line conservatives didn't feel the same way. The general consensus among the GOP "party base"- a term they like to throw around a lot - seems to be that Bush really screwed up on this one. The main concern is basically that a comprehensive approach (trying to tackle everything in one bill) is a big mistake, and that sealing off the borders should be priority number one. Dealing with the immigrants who are already here should come later, the argument goes.

But what really surprised me in everything I heard was the viciousness of the attacks on the President over this one issue. During Bush's entire presidency there has been what I would call extreme reluctance among GOP'ers to criticize ANYTHING the President has done. Even the glaring mistakes (such as the Katrina aftermath) have generally been downplayed by the hard-liners. But not this one. There was so much Bush-bashing going on, at times it was hard to tell whether I was listening to Sean Hannity or Al Frankin.

And that got me thinking about the question I posed in the title: So who is it exactly that still supports Bush? It's no secret that the President's poll numbers are completely in the tank as of late, but what demographic is it that comprises that 30% or so of the nation that is still standing strong with W?

The hard-line liberals have never been with Bush. The more moderate liberals stood at his side after 9/11 but generally bailed in the build up to the Iraq war. The moderate-moderates were on board until Katrina, Harriet Myers, and Valerie Plame (which is also about the time it began to look like there was no end in sight in Iraq). Then came Jack Abramoff and Dick Cheney shooting someone in the face, and the moderate conservatives begin to back off. That pretty much ONLY leaves the "party base," right?

But now, based on what I've heard the past few days, this last stronghold is as permeable as our unprotected border with Mexico.

What does that mean for the next poll? 20% support? 15%? 10? Will Republicans running for office in the mid-term elections this November try to distance themselves from Bush the way Democrat politicians did following the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal?

I really don't know where this will lead, but I think it is intriguing.

(Wow, this post ended up being about 5 times longer than I meant for it to be.)

**UPDATE**
And it looks like I'm not the only one interested by this latest trend...
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/05/17/conservatives.gop/index.html

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